Jan 17, 2020 trumps electoral college victory was sealed by popular vote wins in the perennial swing states of florida, iowa, and ohio, as well as in the socalled blue wall states of michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin, all democratic strongholds in presidential elections since the 1990s. Jun, 2016 in may 2012, the list of possible swing states ranged from nine to as many as 21 states. Popular vote presidency in the electoral college after the civil war, to become an elector, state. Dec 19, 2016 why the electoral college is the absolute worst, explained. The electoral college is pointless and unfair, and has. The electoral college encourages political campaigners to focus on these swing states while ignoring the rest of the country. Jan 31, 2017 the impact of the electoral college on u. The split between the popular vote and the electoral college seems to reflect this. In practice, due to the electoral college, each persons vote weighs differently. And even within swing states, certain counties are more competitive than others and voters in those counties are courted particularly hard. Official 2016 presidential general election results general election date.
Puts the choice of president in the hands of voters in only a few socalled swing states. A state where republicans and democrats have similar levels of support among. The electoral college is supposed to guarantee that populous states cant dominate an election, but it also sets up a disparity in representation. The key is to focus reform efforts on swing states the battlegrounds where elections are decidedand get them to embrace, via ballot initiatives or legislation, electoral systems that reward. Sep 20, 2017 the electoral college is a national security threat. The advocates of this position are correct in arguing that the electoral college method is not democratic in. A swingstate theory of trade protection in the electoral. How the electoral college influences campaigns and policy. To create your own forecast for the 2020 election, click on the states in the map to toggle them between democrat, republican and tossup and watch the electoral. While california has one electoral vote per 712,000 people, wyoming the least populous state in the country has one electoral vote per 195,000 people. Swing states are the most critical states in the upcoming election. Exploring the effects on the electoral college of national and. The lesson plan includes a fun, interactive classroom competition where students make electoral predictions and compare with the actual results. As presidential candidates focus intensely on these states, some argue that this imbalance and several other factors threaten to undermine the countrys democracy.
The electors from every state combine to form the electoral college. The electoral college gives small states more political power and prevents more populous states from dominating the senate was designed for the same reason. Theyre essentially the tipping point of whos going to win the electoral college, then win the presidency, explains swing. For 48 states, it is a winnertakeall election within each state, with the winner getting every electoral vote. The pros and cons of the electoral college smartasset. Presidential candidates will spend the majority of their campaign trying to influence that state. Exploring the electoral college overview in this lesson, students will learn about the history and structure of the electoral college. How do swing states affect the us presidential election. To create your own forecast for the 2020 election, click on the states in the map to toggle them between democrat, republican and tossup and watch the electoral map tallies change.
The electoral college system provides each state the freedom to design individual laws with respect to voting. The founding fathers established it in the constitution, in part, as a compromise between the election of the president by a vote in congress and election of the president by a popular vote of qualified citizens. Okay, how did the framers originally set up the electoral college. Would a general election make all states liable to a recount if there were a close election. Votes must be stolen in the right state in order to change the outcome of the electoral college. States in which polling shows no clear favorite are usually inundated with campaign visits, television advertising, getoutthevote efforts by party organizers and debates, while four out of five voters in the national election are absolutely ignored, according to. In many cases, the popular vote does not matter and instead the candidate who masters the electoral college strategy which includes a successful campaign in the swing states becomes president. One can interpret this as a measure of the degree of distortion created by the majoritarian electoral system,3 and it implies a degree of bias that is orders of magnitude greater than the bias implied by empirical. As swing states, they are extremely influential in the outcome of the presidential election. Swing states, the winnertakeall electoral college, and fiscal federalism. List of 1992 swing states general election voter demographicsthe presidential vote in social groups in percentages % of 1992 total vote 3party vote 1992 1996 social group clinton bush perot clinton dole perot total vote 8.
The electoral college is a body of electors established by the united states constitution, which forms every four years for the sole purpose of electing the president and vice president of the united states. If current trends from the 2012 and 2016 elections continue, the closest results in 2020 will occur in arizona, florida, maine, michigan, minnesota, nebraskas second congressional district, new hampshire, north carolina, pennsylvania, and wisconsin, with florida, michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin constituting the big four most likely to decide the electoral college. The electoral college also allows states to be part. Swing states, the winnertakeall electoral college, and fiscal. Create a specific matchup by clicking the party andor names near the electoral vote counter. Trumps electoral college victory was sealed by popular vote wins in the perennial swing states of florida, iowa, and ohio, as well as in the socalled blue wall states of michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin, all democratic strongholds in presidential elections since the 1990s. Texas is mentioned as a possible swing state in the 2020 presidential election. Instead, they spend their time and effort in the swing states also referred to as battleground states or purple states those states where the popular vote is usually close, and the outcome is up for grabs. Still others argue that, while the electoral college may not be any more antiquated than the rest of the constitution, the mechanism is simply ridiculous. Evidence that swing states that determine the election get more per capita federal money. Swing states, the winnertakeall electoral college, and fiscal federalism article in atlantic economic journal 451 january 2017 with 89 reads how we measure reads.
The state voted for the republican presidential nominee in eight of the last 11 elections. Focus on swing states could weaken democracy in the u. It seems to hit democrats, as wed predict, given that data. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2020 election forecast. In many of the simulations that favor democrats in the electoral college, especially those beyond 2020, swing states that. And even within swing states, certain counties are more competitive than others and voters in. United nations, nov 5 2012 ips a small number of states in the united states have a peculiar power. Reforming the electoral college with the districtpopular plan. May 18, 2018 the electoral college means that swing states which arent necessarily the most representative of the country as a whole get most of the attention. This is the first swing state poll of the 2020 presidential election cycle from the quinnipiac university poll that includes separate polls conducted simultaneously in key swing states. Swing states, the winnertakeall electoral college, and. Official 2016 presidential general election results general. The cook political report 2020 electoral college ratings. Why the electoral college is the absolute worst, explained vox.
With so many swing states, this is hard to predict and hard to do. If youre not living in a swing state, youre not having a. Swing states in 2020 presidential election swings states map. Most of the energy to date has been devoted to replacing the electoral college with a. The election was a significant realigning election after three consecutive republican landslides. Swing states, the winnertakeall electoral college, and fiscal federalism 1.
Next in line is pennsylvania with 20 electors, followed by ohio at 18 and georgia a swing. The 2016 election could come down to just seven swing states, or virtually the same electoral college map from the last presidential election, says analyst larry sabato, but that doesnt mean the democratic party already has a clear advantage going into the race. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast. This adds a spatial dimension that delivers additional results on how the distribution of singleissue voters across swing states can in. A swingstate theory of trade protection in the electoral college. Clinton won a plurality in the popular vote, and a wide electoral college margin. Swing states are also sometimes referred to as battleground states. Also, it gives states the authority to make amendments. Some see the presidential candidates intense focus on swing states as a problem that in the long run could weaken american democracy, as residents of different states are not equally encouraged to engage in politics and told to go vote with the same fervour. This has been proposed on both a national and state level many times. Students will view a video about the structure of the electoral college, learn about north carolinas importance in the 2016 presidential election, and participate in an electoral college simulation. In order to make a prediction, students are introduced to campaign issues, the electoral college, the role of swing states, and the importance of political participation. The electoral college is how the united states selects the next president. The electoral college means that swing states which arent necessarily the most representative of the country as a whole get most of the attention.
If the united states does away with the electoral college, future presidential elections will go to candidates and parties willing. The poll was conducted from february 12th 18th, prior to the february 19th democratic primary debate. Electoral college victory in 2020, even while losing the popular vote. Jan 16, 2020 swing states are those in which neither major political party holds a lock on the outcome of presidential elections. The advocates of this position are correct in arguing that the electoral college method is. According to article ii, section 1, clause 2 of the. Electoral college how the swing states work howstuffworks. In 2016, california was the most misrepresented in the electoral college.
Duquette, christopher and mixon, franklin and cebula, richard 20. But theres a more targeted way to reform american elections by 2020starting with the swing states. For example, if the united states used a national popular vote, each persons vote would weigh the same. It does not assure victory to the person whom majority of americans favor. In 2008, there was a consensus that six swing states were in play near the elections end, while there were 11 states in play in 2004. Disadvantages and advantages of electoral college connectus. What are the real swing states in the 2016 election. Ryan, swing states and electoral college strategy, in from. The electoral college is a national security threat. In defense of the electoral college national affairs. The democratic party picked up and maintained strong support in the northeast, the great lakes region, and the west coast. States have the power to choose delegates to the electoral college, which allows them to participate in the selection of the countrys leader. The presence of the electoral college, an integral part of the constitution, makes swing states very important. The electoral college gives too much power to swing states and allows the presidential election to be decided by a handful of states.
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